published on November 10th, 2019
I spent the third week on setting up and analyzing the validation set on the Rossmann store sales challenge. A relatively large part of this time was spent finding a good split of the training data into training and validation set. Another large part was spent training different models, submitting the predictions to Kaggle and comparing the results on the validation set versus those on the Kaggle leaderboard. I'm somewhat happy with the result, plotting the results on the validation set vs the results on the public leaderboard lies on a nice line, indicating that the validation set is useful to assess models and predict the results on the leaderboard well. This was my first goal for this week and I'm happy that it was achieved, even if I didn't go quite as far as I had hoped.
I also watched lecture 6 of the fast.ai lectures, but I didn't do open recall on this lecture, nor did I create any Anki cards so far. What is hampering me from doing this that I'm not learning all that many new concepts right now, I'm training much more skills and trying things out, this is hard to capture on flash cards. But I still think this could be used in a useful way for some things.
In this week, I wasn't quite able to put in the full time I had planned, ending the week with just short of 9 hours spent on the project vs the 15 that I aimed for. I had a few things come up on my social calendar which kept me from reaching this goal. This is somewhat a problem with my planning, that I can basically only reach it if I don't have anything else come up. Still, I think it is better to shoot for this goal and sometimes miss it than to aim lower and then meet the goal but put in less time and effort overall.
With three weeks in, I was also evaluating my progress so far.
On the one hand, I do think that I have made significant progress given that I've only spend three weeks. I am also happy that I have worked consistently and concentratedly on this project, always trying to make progress towards my current goal. I am absolutely sure that I have made much more practical progress than I would have if I had spent more time watching lectures, doing more theoretical exercises or reviewed concepts.
On the other hand, what I am doing does not quite feel like ultralearning. For this, my work does not quite feel intense and focused enough and right now it is also hard to imagine that my progress on this project would impress anyone in any way.
My plan for the fourth week is as follows:
To a successful fourth week of ultralearning!